Arizona vs Duke Prediction, Odds and Picks | Pickswise (2025)

We’ve got a massive matchup on our hands in the Sweet 16 on Thursday, as the Arizona Wildcats will square off against the #1 seed Duke Blue Devils in the East Region. Arizona is fresh off a hard-fought victory over former Pac-12 rival Oregon, but it sure wasn’t easy, as the Wildcats needed to rally from an early double-digit deficit and hit all of their free throws late to secure a berth in the Sweet 16. As for Duke, it was business as usual for the Blue Devils in a dominant victory over Baylor on Sunday. Duke has undoubtedly looked like a juggernaut in this tournament, which has inflated this number a bit in the market. While the Blue Devils are the deserving national title favorite heading into this game, it’s important to remember that this will be the toughest matchup this team has faced in the postseason by a considerable margin.

On paper, this Arizona team has the athletes to compete with the Blue Devils’ elite talent at all positions, and while that is easier said than done, the Wildcats also have the advantage of clicking at the right time heading into this contest. Following the win over Oregon, head coach Tommy Lloyd’s team has now won 4 of their last 5 games, while also playing some of their best defense of the season in that span. Compared to what Duke faced in the lowly ACC this season, the cumulative wear and tear of a full Big 12 conference slate has seemed to strengthen the resolve of this Arizona team and given it some much-needed belief heading into this game. The Wildcats should be able to hang in this game thanks to their top-10 offense (Barttorvik), excellent offensive rebounding profile (15th in OREB percentage) and another good game from Caleb Love, who is known to be inconsistent. With that said, if Arizona can get second chance points and get to the line consistently, the Wildcats will have a chance to win this one outright.

On the other side, Duke is obviously a complete team, one that certainly looks like the best in the nation. However, the big unknown in this game is how Jon Scheyer’s team will adjust to finally playing a top 15 caliber team. It’s hard to account for the step-up in competition that the Blue Devils will see in this game, as the last time Duke played a team that was anywhere near Arizona’s weight class from a talent and/or statistical perspective, it lost outright to Clemson back in early February. While I don’t expect Duke to slip up and lose outright, Arizona is certainly a live underdog and should do enough to keep things close on Thursday.

Arizona vs Duke prediction:Arizona +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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